German industrial production rose 0.7% in September 2026, beating expectations of no change, as car output jumped 17.1%. Factory orders climbed 4.4% after a 10.1% slump in August, but production still fell 0.4% across the third quarter as a whole.
Global Economy Charts Research Desk | November 8, 2026
Key indicators
| Indicator | Reading | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial production, September | +0.7% m/m | Reuters poll: 0.0%; +0.4% y/y |
| Production, Q3 vs Q2 | -0.4% | Three months on previous three months |
| August production (revised) | +1.0% m/m | First estimate: +2.0% |
| Manufacturing orders, September | +4.4% m/m | Reuters poll: +4.8%; August -10.1% |
| Orders excluding large orders | +5.1% m/m | Q3 vs Q2: +0.1% |
Excluding energy and construction, industrial output rose 1.7% on the month, led by a 3.0% increase in capital goods. The rebound in cars followed two weak months affected by production changeovers and factory holidays. Destatis also revised August sharply lower, after new construction data from turnover tax returns, so the latest picture is of a modest rather than strong recovery.
1. Cars and pharmaceuticals drive the gain
Automotive output rose 17.1% in September and pharmaceuticals 8.0%, according to Destatis. Machinery and equipment fell 6.5%, giving back much of August’s gain, while construction dropped 2.6% and energy production 1.2%. Output in energy-intensive industries rose 0.8% on the month but fell 3.5% in the third quarter and was 1.9% lower than a year earlier, reflecting high energy costs.
2. A weak quarter despite two good months
Production fell 0.4% in the third quarter compared with the second, because July’s 1.2% decline outweighed gains in August and September. Over the past year, monthly changes have mostly stayed within about one percentage point either side of zero. Commerzbank’s Joerg Kraemer told Reuters that industrial production continues to move sideways at a low level, a view the quarterly data support.
3. Orders rebound but miss forecasts
New orders rose 4.4% in September, short of the 4.8% expected in a Reuters poll, after August was revised to a 10.1% fall. Excluding volatile large orders, they rose 5.1%. Domestic orders increased 6.6% and foreign orders 2.8%, with euro-area demand up 4.5%. Machinery orders rose 8.3%, helped by a large order for engines and turbines, and consumer goods orders jumped 14.4%.
4. Little underlying momentum yet
Over the third quarter, orders were just 0.2% higher than in the second, and 0.1% higher excluding large orders, which points to stable rather than rising demand. Manufacturing turnover rose 0.2% in September. Germany’s September foreign trade data are due from Destatis on 9 November, and will show whether exports to the US and China improved after August’s 0.8% monthly decline in exports.
Scenarios to watch
If car production stays near September’s level and orders for capital goods hold up, industrial output could stabilise in the fourth quarter. If high energy costs keep weighing on chemicals and other energy-intensive sectors, and export demand stays weak, the sideways trend may continue. The 9 November trade data and Eurostat’s second estimate of third-quarter GDP on 13 November are the next releases to watch. These are scenarios for monitoring, not forecasts.
Sources and methodology
Destatis, Production in September 2026, 6 November 2026; Destatis, New orders in manufacturing in September 2026, 5 November 2026; Destatis, Production in August 2026; Reuters via Investing.com, 6 November 2026; Commerzbank Research, 5 November 2026. Reported figures are distinguished from forecasts and GEC calculations. Charts use the values and units shown; scales start at zero except where negative values or index thresholds require otherwise. Interpretive sections are GEC analysis, not company or central-bank forecasts.
Thumbnail: AI-generated editorial illustration. Figures are rounded for readability; some releases may be preliminary or subject to revision.
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