The US Treasury kept coupon auction sizes unchanged at its November 2026 refunding but now expects to hold them only for the next several quarters, dropping the words ‘at least’. It plans to borrow $618 billion in October-December and $800 billion in January-March 2027, after a bond sell-off pushed long-term yields to multi-decade highs in October.
Global Economy Charts Research Desk | November 5, 2026
Key indicators
| Indicator | Reading | Context |
|---|---|---|
| November refunding | $125bn | 3-, 10- and 30-year; raises about $28bn of new cash |
| Borrowing estimate, Oct-Dec 2026 | $618bn | $10bn below August estimate; cash balance $850bn |
| Borrowing estimate, Jan-Mar 2027 | $800bn | Assumes $1.0tn cash balance at end-March |
| Borrowing, Jul-Sep 2026 (actual) | $742bn | August estimate: $739bn |
| Fed funds target range | 3.75-4.00% | Held on 28 October; two dissents for a rise |
The quarterly refunding sets out how the Treasury will finance the federal deficit. The figures cover privately held net marketable borrowing. Next week’s auctions comprise a $58 billion 3-year note, a $42 billion 10-year note and a $25 billion 30-year bond, refunding about $97 billion of maturing securities. The statement matters more than usual because of the October sell-off in long-term bonds.
1. A small change of wording
In August the Treasury said it expected to keep coupon and floating-rate note auction sizes unchanged for at least the next several quarters. In November it dropped ‘at least’, while adding that it continues to evaluate potential future changes. Reuters reported that analysts read the shift as opening the door to changes in 2027, with cuts to 20- and 30-year sizes seen as more likely than increases at the long end.
2. Borrowing stays heavy
The Treasury borrowed $742 billion in July-September, close to its $739 billion estimate, and ended September with $984 billion in cash. Excluding the effect of the higher starting cash balance, the October-December estimate is $24 billion above August’s projection. The $800 billion estimate for January-March 2027 assumes the cash balance rises to $1 trillion. Reuters reported that the fiscal 2026 deficit was $1.992 trillion.
3. Bills, buybacks and the 7-year note
Bills will absorb most short-term swings in financing needs: the Treasury expects to cut shorter-dated bill auctions in December and increase sizes across the bill curve in January. It plans buybacks of up to $70 billion for liquidity support and up to $25 billion for cash management. From March 2027 the 7-year note will become a quarterly new issue with two monthly reopenings, like the 10-year note.
4. Yields and the Fed backdrop
Monthly average 10-year yields rose from 4.06% in October 2025 to 5.13% in October 2026, and 30-year yields to 5.47%. Reuters said October’s sell-off took both to their highest since 2002. The 10-year yield had eased to below 4.9% by 4 November, according to CNBC. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, with two officials favouring a rise.
Scenarios to watch
If deficits stay near $2 trillion, the Treasury may need larger auctions in shorter maturities during 2027, while trimming long-dated issuance would ease pressure on 30-year yields. If inflation falls with oil prices and the Fed stops tightening, demand for longer bonds could improve. Next week’s 10-year and 30-year auctions will give an early read on investor appetite. These are scenarios for monitoring, not forecasts.
Sources and methodology
US Treasury, quarterly refunding statement, 4 November 2026; US Treasury, marketable borrowing estimates, 2 November 2026; US Treasury, quarterly refunding statement, 5 August 2026; FRED, 10-year Treasury yield (GS10); FRED, 30-year Treasury yield (GS30); Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, 28 October 2026; Reuters, 4 November 2026; Reuters via Kitco, 2 November 2026. Reported figures are distinguished from forecasts and GEC calculations. Charts use the values and units shown; scales start at zero except where negative values or index thresholds require otherwise. Interpretive sections are GEC analysis, not company or central-bank forecasts.
Thumbnail: AI-generated editorial illustration. Figures are rounded for readability; some releases may be preliminary or subject to revision.
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