US real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in the third quarter of 2026, up from 2.2% and above the 3.2% expected. Equipment investment rose 20.9% and inventories added 1.6 points, while surging imports subtracted 2.6 points.
Global Economy Charts Research Desk | November 2, 2026
Key indicators
| Indicator | Reading | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | +3.4% SAAR | Q2 2026: 2.2%; Reuters poll: 3.2% |
| Final sales to private domestic purchasers | +4.9% | Q2 2026: 4.6% |
| Consumer spending | +3.8% | Same pace as Q2; 2.52pp contribution |
| Equipment investment | +20.9% | 1.16pp contribution |
| PCE price index | +2.1% | Core +2.5% (Q2: 5.0% and 3.3%) |
All growth rates here are seasonally adjusted annual rates, the convention used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis: the quarterly change in real GDP was 0.8%, which compounds to 3.4% over a year. This is the advance estimate, built on incomplete source data, and the second estimate is due on 25 November.
1. Demand was stronger than the headline
The measure economists use to strip out trade, inventories and government, final sales to private domestic purchasers, grew 4.9%, faster than GDP itself. Consumer spending rose 3.8%, matching the second quarter, with services up 4.1% and goods up 3.0%. Consumption alone contributed 2.52 percentage points, three-quarters of the headline.
2. An equipment boom tied to technology
Business investment grew 12.7%. Equipment rose 20.9%, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2020, and intellectual property products, which include software, rose 8.4%. Reuters links the strength to investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Residential investment was the weak spot, falling 3.3%.
3. Inventories and imports largely cancel out
Businesses rebuilt stocks after five consecutive quarters of drawdowns, and inventories added 1.61 points. Much of that restocking was met from abroad: imports rose 19.7% and subtracted 2.64 points, while exports fell 5.7%. Net exports took 3.32 points off growth in total. The two items tend to move together and are revised heavily, so they are best read as a pair.
4. Quarterly prices cooled, monthly prices did not
The PCE price index rose at a 2.1% annualised rate, down from 5.0%, and core prices rose 2.5%. That quarterly average is softer than the latest monthly data: in September alone, PCE prices rose 0.5% and were 3.6% higher than a year earlier. The Federal Reserve held its policy range at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October. Government spending added 0.90 points, mostly reflecting smaller crude-oil sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which BEA notes has no direct effect on total GDP.
Scenarios to watch
If equipment investment holds up and imports normalise, net trade could add to growth in the fourth quarter. If inventory building was pulled forward, the fourth quarter could see the reverse. Gross domestic income, which BEA has not yet published for the quarter, will provide a cross-check on the strength of output. None of these is a forecast.
Sources and methodology
BEA, GDP (advance estimate), 3rd quarter 2026, 29 October 2026; BEA, 2026Q3 advance estimate comparisons; Reuters, 29 October 2026. Reported figures are distinguished from forecasts and GEC calculations. Charts use the values and units shown; scales start at zero except where negative values or index thresholds require otherwise. Interpretive sections are GEC analysis, not company or central-bank forecasts.
Thumbnail: AI-generated editorial illustration. Figures are rounded for readability; some releases may be preliminary or subject to revision.
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