Global Economy Charts

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 in October. Better sentiment is welcome, but it is not the same as stronger purchasing power or realised spending.

Global Economy Charts Research Desk | 28 October 2026

Key indicators

Indicator	Reading	Period / context
Consumer Confidence	91.7	September revised: 84.2
Present Situation	120.4	Up 8.6 index points
Expectations	72.6	Up 6.9 index points
12-month inflation expectations	5.8%	Survey expectation; not actual CPI

The survey covered 1–21 October. Both current conditions and expectations improved, but planned outlays on services and durable goods weakened. The Conference Board associated the rebound with easier gasoline prices while noting continued concern about living costs. Its confidence index differs from the University of Michigan sentiment survey covered in our earlier reporting.

1. Direction and level answer different questions

An improvement measures change from the previous observation. The index level describes sentiment relative to its own historical scale. Neither is a dollar amount or a growth forecast. A sharp bounce can coexist with caution, particularly after earlier declines. Avoid interpreting a rise in confidence as a matching percentage increase in consumption.

2. Income and financing determine what follows

Households can feel less pessimistic without having more disposable cash. Debt repayments, rent, food costs and access to credit constrain purchases. Durable goods are especially sensitive because decisions can be postponed and frequently require financing. The stronger signal would be a sustained improvement supported by real income and employment, rather than confidence alone.

3. Use a dashboard, not a single survey

Compare confidence with retail sales volumes, personal consumption, arrears and labour-market data. Each captures a different channel and arrives with different lags. Survey expectations are useful for identifying risks before expenditure is recorded, but they should not substitute for observed transactions. The sample period also matters when major events occur after the survey closes.

Scenarios to watch

If improving sentiment is followed by firmer income and actual purchases, the rebound would gain economic significance. If intentions remain soft, it may mainly reflect temporary relief in perceived conditions. This article does not assign a recession probability from the survey.

Sources and methodology

The Conference Board, release distributed 27 October 2026. Readings are taken from the linked releases available at preparation. Forecasts and survey expectations are labelled separately from observed outcomes. Interpretive sections and scenarios are Global Economy Charts analysis.

Thumbnail: AI-generated editorial illustration. Chart: Global Economy Charts using attributed source data.