Global Economy Charts

This began declining around May. As of August, average hourly wages have fallen. So wages are now declining.

This is a very bad signal. It’s a recession signal, and you need to be aware of it. I believe this could deliver a shock to the market comparable to an interest-rate hike.

This time, because of the AI bubble, the economy is breaking down first. That’s why we’re seeing data like this now.

If you look at Trading Economic

s, this is what the data shows. It entered negative territory starting around April.

This was during the rate-hiking period. Back then, the stock market fell by more than 30%.

Remember that. So why isn’t the market falling now? This time, the economy is breaking down first. The sequence is a little different.

The economy is breaking down first, and then the market reacts. On the surface, everything may look fine, but when you look underneath, everything is breaking down.

A representative indicator is the Buffett Indicator. The Buffett Indicator is at 237.3, which suggests an extremely high valuation. Now imagine what happens if the market breaks down from this level. It would be terrifying, right?

The Shiller P/E is similar. We’re seeing bubble-like conditions reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, with the ratio at 41.2. That’s why I record these numbers every day. I’ve been doing this for six years. The historical highs are now 240.3 and 41.3.

They peaked in August, and now they can’t move higher. To me, that’s evidence that things are already beginning to break down.

Next, from a long-term perspective, I’ve been saying that we should prepare physical gold. Gold is holding the $4,100 to $4,200 range well.

Silver is now around $61, the gold-to-silver ratio is around 67, and the Dow/Gold ratio is around 12.37.

I’ve told you that this is one of the key issues.

The interest-rate spread entered the 1% range starting in late September. In my view, the market is now finished.

Now the question is when it will actually break.

But what we do know is that semiconductors clearly broke down. That happened on June 22.

What did I say about real wages earlier? They’re a recession signal. So there’s a possibility that this downturn could hit very hard. This is another indicator you need to follow.

Next, the Fear & Greed Index has moved higher, right?

It has moved back into neutral territory. Neutral.

Now watch carefully to see whether it moves into greed and then falls, or whether it turns back down from here. In my view, the situation looks somewhat dangerous.

The S&P 500 may appear to be in greed territory, but underneath, things are completely breaking down. Look at the trading volume in large-cap stocks. Look at the put options.

This is the kind of optical illusion we’re seeing in the market right now. So we’re not going to be fooled by that illusion. What do people keep saying?

“The stock market is fine. It’s great. Just throw your money into it.” Come on. What kind of ridiculous nonsense is that?

Now let’s look at Ethereum. It can’t move higher. This is a rebound after a 70% collapse. I believe the final move is still ahead.

ARK is down 2.47%. It looks like the decline in small- and mid-cap stocks may now be beginning.

What have I told you to watch? Banks.

Banks are in serious trouble right now. Serious trouble. If a 30% collapse hits, you won’t be able to get out of the market when it happens.

Now, Nvidia has made history.

A $100 billion share-buyback program. But today the stock was pushed back. It only managed to rise about 0.14%. We could now see a situation where it begins pulling back from the highs.

Apple isn’t moving either. It’s forming a double top.

Look carefully. Large-cap stocks aren’t moving higher right now. Google.

Now Microsoft. Microsoft is also behaving like this near its all-time high.

Amazon is likewise being pushed lower.

TSMC is around its historical high.

Now Meta. It can’t move higher. It has fallen.

Broadcom. We’ve seen a rebound, but it’s only a rebound. The underlying trend remains intact the downtrend.

Tesla likewise can’t move higher.

Because we have this kind of decisive evidence, no matter what people say, we’re not going to be shaken.

They say the stock market is doing well? That’s complete nonsense.

And now real estate is getting crushed.

Next, high yield is finished. The market is breaking down. These are the warning signals we need to watch: wages are declining, the market is breaking down, and everything is becoming chaotic. Look at the situation we’re in. It’s getting crazy.

So what’s happening with the 10-year Treasury yield? It’s basically stalled—not really rising or falling—at around 5.28%.

Next, look here. What’s the interest-rate (10years- 30mont) spread now? Around 1.148%.

This is the problem. You need to remember this. That’s why I believe enormous events are now preparing to unfold. I don’t know the exact date.

Because this isn’t a fortune-telling shop. So look carefully at what’s actually happening. In my view, we’re seeing conditions reminiscent of 1929, and we need to prepare thoroughly for that possibility.

Now, why do we need to watch the 2-year Treasury yield? Why? Because of gold.

When interest rates fall—specifically when the 2-year Treasury yield falls—there have been periods when gold prices surged.

So we’re watching for the 2-year yield to come down. Oh, it has come down. If you want gold to rise, that’s what you’d want to see.

The dollar has also moved lower.

So if the 2-year yield falls and the dollar also falls, gold isn’t declining. It’s holding firm. $4,192. So we should see a clearer direction soon.

Now silver is around $61. It’s not coming down, right?

What’s the gold-to-silver ratio? What’s the number? 67.837.

The Dow/Gold ratio declined, rebounded, and now appears to be preparing for a second decline. When this ratio falls, gold prices can surge.

Next, the weekly oil chart hasn’t changed. It’s still in an upward trend.

Now look at IPO liquidity. That has also begun to weaken. Because liquidity isn’t being supplied sufficiently right now, only a limited number of stocks are moving higher, while mid-cap stocks are breaking down.

Only a handful of stocks are moving higher, while mid-cap stocks are deteriorating.

DR. Horon is also moving lower.

What about the VXN? It looks like it’s preparing to rise.

Volatility is getting ready to move.

Now SKEW has started coming down. When SKEW falls, I consider that a particularly important warning signal. Because it’s a forward-looking indicator, it tends to reflect risk in advance. Watch it carefully.

Next, look at the NDQ/RUT relative indicator. Because the Nasdaq is distorted, and because the S&P 500 is distorted by the largest companies, the index has been able to reach these all-time highs.

Now, if it turns down from here, we need to be prepared.

This is the Russell 2000. Can we really call this an uptrend in the broader market? It started breaking down around mid-August. Small- and mid-cap stocks have already broken down

Next, these are the large caps. QQQ. It has made history with new highs.

This is the Nasdaq. It’s also making new historical highs.

Now semiconductors. Semiconductors first plunged about 30%, then rebounded, and it looks like the A-B-C corrective wave may now be complete. So if that’s the case, it now looks ready to turn back down, right? In my view, it’s clearly preparing for another serious decline.

So watch this carefully, especially semiconductors. If semiconductors begin falling again, I believe that’s when the market could enter a much more serious decline.

Next, the S&P 500 has reached record highs.

But this is the reality underneath.

This is the equal-weighted index. And the one above it the standard S&P 500, which is weighted by market capitalization.

So when a small number of companies have enormous market capitalizations, the market-cap-weighted index can appear to be making historic highs. But underneath, this is what the market actually looks like. Be careful. In my view, the broader market is heading into serious trouble.

Next, what does the Dow look like?

It’s the same story. So what do the Dow, the equal-weighted index, semiconductors, and the Russell 2000 all look like? They all appear to be breaking down, while only a handful of specific stocks are holding up the indexes. In my view, we need to prepare for the possibility of a major shock before long. That’s what this picture looks like.

This kind of market distortion also appeared around the Great Depression and during the dot-com bubble. So keep those historical examples in mind and watch the market carefully.

So as the Dow moves like this, there’s one thing I’m particularly worried about.

I’m worried that a 120-year historical trend could break down. That’s what concerns me. It’s difficult not to be concerned about something like that.

If a 120-year historical trend breaks down, then the stock market could enter an extraordinarily severe period.

Potentially for decades. Isn’t that terrifying just to imagine? But nobody talks about this. Right?

Make your own judgment carefully. That’s why I believe we should prepare physical gold and be ready.

And prepare cash as well. As I keep saying, the reason I’m talking about this isn’t to tell you not to invest in stocks.

You can invest in stocks, but at the same time, prepare cash and physical gold so that you’re ready for the coming crisis.

James Rickards has explained very well why people should own physical assets.

That’s the answer.

So keep this in mind as you make your decisions. Let’s make sure we’re well prepared with physical gold and cash.

In my view, the assets most likely to help us survive a future crisis are cash and physical assets. That’s the point I’m making.

So what’s happening to real average wages right now? They’re falling. The recessionary signal began appearing first around April.

The stock market looks as though it’s still moving higher because the indexes are distorted, but underneath the surface, the broader market is actually breaking down.