Now, if you look at the international financial news, things between Iran and the United States are not looking good. If that’s the case, oil prices will continue to remain high, and inflation will also stay elevated.
Next, securing funding — corporate interest rates are also at 6%. This is the biggest potential trigger.
In my view, things like this are the real triggers.
I’m not criticizing the large legacy players, but they’re too heavily focused on stocks.
Nvidia has become involved in a shareholder lawsuit related to the Groq mega-deal.
Finally, negative news about Nvidia is starting to emerge little by little.
Keep an eye on this.
AI researchers are issuing chilling warnings.
If AI intelligence continues to develop and eventually takes control of everything through computer systems, humanity will inevitably move toward extinction.
That’s basically what they’re saying.
We need to take this seriously, but our Trump guy isn’t doing that, right?
He’s got the accelerator pushed all the way down right now.
So we’re going to face some extremely dangerous situations going forward.
Now, if you look at the midterm election landscape, Democrats are favored to take the House.
The House has shifted toward the Democrats.
The Senate, meanwhile, is currently very close.
If Democrats take control of both the Senate and the House, Trump will lose his momentum.
All of Trump’s bullshit, exaggerations, and bluffing up to this point will disappear.
His approval rating is falling to its lowest levels.
High inflation. Cost of living.
That’s what matters.
Ordinary people care about making a living.
They don’t care about someone’s personal interests or political issues.
If inflation isn’t stabilized, everything gets completely smashed.
Trump himself must know about his extremely low approval ratings and the current election landscape.
But he keeps smiling.
Maybe he’s preparing some huge card.
Maybe a default, or perhaps some kind of state of emergency.
It looks like he’s preparing something.
Anyway, keep watching carefully.
If we look at Trump’s fate after the midterm elections, there could be changes in the way the government operates and in the structure of political power.
The U.S. president has legislative authority.
But that authority becomes weaker.
Why?
Suppose he issues an executive order.
They don’t immediately cooperate with it.
Where?
In the House.
Then his authority doesn’t work.
So he’ll try to strengthen his executive authority instead.
Lame duck.
Yes, a lame duck.
If we look at Trump’s fate after the midterm elections, there could be changes in the way the government operates and in the structure of political power.
The U.S. president has legislative authority.
But that authority becomes weaker.
Why?
Suppose he issues an executive order.
They don’t immediately cooperate with it.
Where?
In the House.
Then his authority doesn’t work.
So he’ll try to strengthen his executive authority instead.
Lame duck.
Yes, a lame duck
So if the Democrats take the Senate as well as the House, they’re preparing major hearings into the rapid increase in the Trump family’s assets and allegations of corruption.
They’re also bringing out the impeachment card.
If that happens, the U.S. stock market…
Even if someone told us not to live kindly, we’d naturally live that way anyway.
Make your judgments carefully.
Now, this is the Buffett Indicator.
235.87, PER 41.4.
In August, it was 240.3 and 42.3.
It still hasn’t reached that level.
It hasn’t surpassed the August high.
But some individual stocks have surpassed their highs.
Don’t be fooled.
This is now moving into a major downtrend.
Next, as a long-term indicator, what should we prepare for after a stock market collapse?
Gold.
It’s holding 4,100 well.
Silver is holding $61 well.
That’s where we are.
And what’s the biggest problem right now?
The interest-rate spread.
It’s currently above 1%.
We’re now in a situation where it wouldn’t be strange if something blew up at any moment.
It hit 1% in September.
Before that, there was no 1%.
As you can see, data like this is extremely important.
So what happened when it reached 1% in September?
I’ll show you later.
This is serious..
Semiconductors are at 14,643.
They can’t get past this level.
June 22.
Interesting, isn’t it?
Why can’t they break through?
They can’t break through because people are selling and because people aren’t buying.
That’s how you should look at it.
Now, Fear and Greed.
This is one of my favorites.
From greed to fear.
From fear to greed.
The S&P 500 is neutral here.
But the equal-weighted index is in a sharp downward trend.
Look at the trading volume of the large-cap stocks.
This is what the market really looks like.
You have to look beneath the surface.
You have to understand what’s really happening underneath to know the market accurately.
The put-call options aren’t coming down.
That’s how you should judge the situation.
Now, what about Ethereum?
It only rebounded after falling 70%.
Thirty-eight percent.
Now it’s preparing for a second crash.
ARK small- and mid-cap stocks rebounded after collapsing and are now forming a double top. And here’s something you need to be careful about.
Banks.
Banks could be heading toward an extremely dangerous situation.
Maybe sometime next year, we could see something drop by 30%.
I don’t know whether it’ll happen early next year or around the middle of the year, but I believe this situation is coming.
Nvidia is creating an illusion in the market right now.
Nvidia is currently involved in a lawsuit, but look at this situation.
Now, Apple.
Apple can’t move higher.
You see the double top?
It’s continuing in a downtrend.
Microsoft.
A large double top.
Amazon is in a downtrend.
Meta.
A large double top.
Broadcom.
Downtrend.
Tesla.
A somewhat strong rebound.
That’s about it.
SMCI.
How does it look?
It’s not working, right?
Palantir.
You see that large double top?
Double top.
Check it carefully.
Oracle
It’s not working.
If this company starts showing default signals, then AI is finished.
Coreweave
If this one starts showing default signals, it’s finished too.
You see that?
Down 70% from the high.
Then SanDisk is also down slightly.
It looks like the second crash has begun.
Prepare carefully and make sure you’re ready.
Real estate is dangerous.
Next is high yield.
I’ve been talking about this since September.
What started?
The bubble collapse.
RSI 34.
It’s going to plunge soon.
This is a serious situation.
This is the biggest danger signal.
Zombie companies — particularly companies in the high-yield bond market — are going bankrupt.
Then all the people employed by those companies lose their jobs.
Unemployment increases.
The final crash signal has appeared.
This kind of thing is extremely important, but hardly anyone talks about it.
I think there are maybe one or two people besides me talking about this.
Check the RSI.
So as you can see, credit risk has emerged.
When?
September.
That’s when it starts.
Now volume is coming in.
The 1% interest-rate spread (10 years – 3 months)
Look at September.
1%, 1%, 1%.
The signals are appearing.
This matches exactly what I’ve been talking about.
Right?
Next, this is the youngest and most dangerous part of the high-yield bond market.
The current interest rate is 17%.
Seventeen percent.
Everyone, can an ordinary company survive that?
A 17% interest rate?
This really started in September.
For example, it’s now going to break above the previous high.
This area here was during the pandemic.
What was it during the pandemic?
“19!!”
Now suppose it reaches 19.
If it goes above 19, then we’re moving into a pandemic-level situation.
If it goes above 20…
The China-driven crisis.
If it goes above 20, then we’re moving toward a Lehman-level crisis.
Other places don’t talk about data like this.
You only see it on my blog, so watch carefully.
Next is the two-year Treasury.
It can’t move higher right now.
The two-year Treasury is a short-term bond.
Look at the three-month Treasury.
What’s this?
This is the Fed rate.
Interest rates.
It went up and now it’s coming down under current market conditions.
So I believe this will continue downward.
And what goes up when interest rates fall?
Gold rises.
Watch carefully.
Now look at the 10-year.
It’s staying high.
That’s dangerous.
The market still hasn’t realized it.
People are saying:
“Who cares if interest rates rise? We’re going with AI.”
They keep going and going.
And then — crash.
So the interest-rate spread today is 1.186.
Something terrifying is happening.
Once it goes above 1%, everything gets destroyed.
This is Lehman.
This is the pandemic.
Once it goes above 1%, everything gets destroyed.
Now, the dot-com period.
The dot-com bubble collapsed too.
So real estate, stocks and banks all get destroyed.
This time: 764 days.
How many days was the Great Depression?
700 days.
It was 700 days back then.
That’s why the current situation is so similar to the Great Depression.
You think you can ignore it because it happened 100 years ago?
That’s complete bullshit.
Go ahead and ignore it.
See what happens.
That’s where we’re heading.
Prepare yourselves.
The dollar is strong, but gold isn’t falling.
Interesting, right?
That’s why, as I explained yesterday, over the long term you should watch the dollar.
For gold prices, look at 10 years, 20 years, 15 years — periods like that.
Then for the short term, what should you watch?
The two-year Treasury.
If it comes down, gold prices will explode higher.
You understand?
You can’t find this kind of information elsewhere.
You can’t find it anywhere else.
So, the dollar and gold.
Gold is stable, right?
After a major rally, we had a correction.
Then it started rising again and entered another correction.
There could be several reasons, but one was rising interest rates.
The two-year yield has stopped rising now.
So if the two-year yield isn’t going higher, what happens?
Gold prices are also sitting still right now.
If the yield comes down, gold goes up.
Next is silver.
Silver is following its big brother.
The gold-to-silver ratio is 67.
The Dow ratio is 12.39.
It fell and then rebounded.
Now it’s preparing for a second decline.
If this falls, that’s good.
Next is oil.
Oil is now at 89.
On the daily chart, it has entered a downtrend.
On the weekly chart, however, the trend is still alive.
It’s also still alive on the monthly chart.
So at the very least, it needs to come down to the 50MA on the weekly chart before we can say we’re getting a signal that inflation is coming under control.
Oil prices usually take about three months to be reflected in inflation.
That’s how you should look at it.
IPO market liquidity has rebounded slightly.
Anyway, the downtrend continues.
D.R. Horton
Slight downtrend
The VIX volatility index is rising.
The individual-stock VIX measures are rising as well.
So don’t be fooled by the illusion created by a handful of stocks.
I’ve continued to warn you about this.
The line is coming down.
A danger signal has appeared.
This is semiconductors.
A crash followed by a rebound.
Look at it accurately.
Let’s look at the Russell first.
This is the Russell 2000.
How does it look?
It’s in a downtrend.
Next is QQQ.
This is what distorts the market.
A few stocks — just one or two or a handful — have distorted everything.
They’ve made history.
Don’t celebrate this.
As I’ve repeatedly said, you should use this as an opportunity to reduce your positions.
Semiconductors can’t move higher.
Watch carefully.
Next, the S&P 500.
Don’t celebrate.
Don’t say, “It’s still alive.”
That’s not the point.
Look at this instead.
It’s collapsing.
This one is weighted according to market capitalization.
Only a handful of the biggest stocks look like this.
This one is equal-weighted.
What does that mean?
The other 490 stocks look like this.
So which one is telling the truth?
This one is.
Look.
Everything is collapsing right now.
If you make one wrong move here, you’re completely finished.
What does that mean?
It means we’re moving toward something on the scale of the Great Depression.
Prepare thoroughly.
And you absolutely need to prepare physical gold.
Whether it’s technical analysis, economic analysis, or supply-and-demand analysis, I’m doing all of it perfectly.
Perfectly.
So I hope all of you prepare thoroughly and get ready.
We should buy a lot when things are cheap.
We need to keep accumulating.
And I need a lot of support from all of you.
Please continue supporting me.
There are a tremendous number of danger signals appearing right now.
I’ve shown you all of them.
I continue studying these things and sharing them with you, so please watch carefully.
By the time you can actually see the market collapsing with your own eyes, ordinary people won’t be able to get out.
At that point, they won’t be able to escape.
The time to get out is now.
I’ve continued sending warnings about a collapse in the asset markets.
We can’t be the only ones who don’t realize what’s happening.
So I hope many of you prepare for this crisis!!!!
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